ESBC Sports Betting & Finance Podcast Network
NFL Week - 4 Hawthorne Effect NFL Betting MasterClass 2021
This Episode We go over the “Bets we got wrong”
21-11=65% Wk 5*(52.5% is break even) “Ground Hog Day”
60-38=62% (Year To Date) =$19,000.00 ish profit
You learn more from the bets you got wrong than the bets you got right
Link To Hawthorne Effect
“Most expensive advice is bad advice”
2) Use math (which is pattern recognition not calculation and statistics)
3)Rigorously apply logic
4) Make a good decision that consistently results in free cash flow, profit and money.
Podcast is actionable information in real time to monetize the outcomes of the games
However “Salesman think short term-businessman and women think long term”We have 1000% ROI -Return on investment. “Higher level thinking is long term thinking”
Meaning 10 times more money than what you started with by listening o the PodcastBet The Process This is the CNBC Bloomberg Fox Business Of Sportsbetting
Regression To The Mean
As Robert Glazer writes “The concept of regression to the mean was first discovered by the statistician and sociologist Sir Francis Galton. As part of his research, Galton observed that tall parents tended to have children who were shorter than them, whereas short parents often had children who were taller than them.
Based on this, Galton developed the principle of regression to the mean, which states that in any series with complex phenomena that are dependent on many variables, where chance is involved, extreme outcomes tend to be followed by more moderate ones. In other words, if something extremely unexpected happens, it is likely to be followed by something that’s more aligned with statistical projections or expectations.
We have a tendency to overreact to results in the short term and use those outcomes to make long term decisions, ignoring the reality of regression to the mean. In particular, we tend to ignore the role of luck and timing when evaluating extreme early outcomes. “
“Regression to the mean” plays out its importance with betting lines
0:05 Urban Meyer
0:25 Games We Missed
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